Charm City C1 race analysis: Saturday, October 3
- Athlete: Sidney McGill
- Prepared: 2026-10-03 by Coach Luca
- Race: Charm City Cross C1, Druid Hill Park, Baltimore. 2nd place, behind Manon Bakker.
- Evidence:
- Today's four files: pre-ride, warm-up, race (50:36) and cool-down.
- Last year's C1 on the same course (September 27, 2025), matched by venue.
- Last weekend's Roanoke races.
- This week's training files.
- Weather: about 21°C, mild, light wind.
Bottom line
- A strong result on a below-par day for her body. Second in a C1 behind a World Cup-level rider earns valuable UCI points, and she rode the best-paced race she has ever ridden at this venue.
- She raced the plan.
- Lap 1 was controlled at 222 W NP (target: 240 W or less).
- Every lap was within 209-225 W, and each sector time was repeated within 1-3 seconds lap after lap.
- Her speed fell only 4% from lap 1 to lap 6, against 7-9% at this venue in 2023 and 2025.
- What she lacked was top end, not pacing.
- Her best 30 seconds (364 W) and best minute (290 W) were 4-18% below last year here and below last Sunday's win in Roanoke.
- Her heart rate topped out at 188 and spent only 6 seconds at 188 or above, against 20.8 minutes in last year's race.
- This is the leftover fatigue from Roanoke that showed on Tuesday and Wednesday. It had faded by Friday's easy pre-ride, but not at full race intensity.
- The gap to Manon most likely opened on lap 3, on the climb about 1 km into the lap.
- She matched a surge there with her hardest 30 seconds of the race so far (362 W).
- Over the top, her power dropped to about 125 W for two minutes and the rest of the lap was her weakest.
- Lap 4 was then her fastest lap, which looks like a chase.
- This is exactly the limiter the training targets: recovering at race pace straight after a surge.
- Three small execution gains for Sunday:
- Heart rate at the gun was 114 again (target 120-130).
- The morning pre-ride included hard efforts.
- The warm-up file had no power, so it can't be checked.
The race in numbers
This year's course is about 5% shorter per lap, so lap times aren't comparable with 2025. Power and heart rate are.
Lap by lap
This year's course
The layout changed from 2025. Each lap has two climbs that decide the race:
- A rise at about 0.5-0.75 km: 290-305 W every lap.
- The main climb from about 0.75 km to the high point at about 1.5 km: the hardest 30 seconds of every lap from lap 3 on, at 1.0 km, at 322-364 W.
Then there's a power section at about 2.0-2.25 km (220-240 W), and a short, fast finishing straight.
What went well
- Second place in a C1 behind Manon Bakker: UCI points that count toward her European start row.
- The best-paced race she has ridden here. No lap-1 blowout, no late collapse, sector times repeated within seconds. This is the main execution fix from Roanoke and it worked.
- She kept fighting. After losing contact on lap 3 she rode her fastest lap of the race on lap 4.
- Her start was solid. 502 W for the first 15 seconds, and the first two minutes at 247 W put her where she needed to be.
- Her body is moving in the right direction:
- Heart rate at steady power went from suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday to normal on Friday.
- She raced at 220 W NP four days after an exhausted Tuesday.
What didn't
- The top end is capped. Her best 30 seconds (364 W) and best minute (290 W) were down 4-10% on last year here and 8-18% on last Sunday's win. When Manon surged on the climb, Sidney could match it for 30 seconds but couldn't recover over the top.
- Her heart rate never reached the red zone. It peaked at 188 in the race, while she touched 194 during the morning pre-ride. When heart rate won't climb at maximal effort, along with lower short power, that is a fatigue sign: her engine is working, but the top gear isn't there yet.
- NP 220 W is about 5% below last year's 231 W on this course, despite better pacing.
- She started cold again. Her heart rate at the gun was 114. The warm-up ended with it at 111-133, about 8.5 minutes before the gun.
- The morning pre-ride included hard efforts (704 W for 5 seconds, heart rate to 194). On race day the pre-ride should be for lines only.
- The warm-up was recorded without power (trainer not paired), so the warm-up efforts can't be checked.
Why: fatigue first, fitness second
The pattern this week is consistent:
- Tuesday: exhausted. Heart rate suppressed, sweet spot couldn't be held.
- Wednesday: easy ride. Still suppressed.
- Thursday: race-pace reps 11-24% short.
- Friday: heart rate normal at easy and moderate power, sharp starts.
- Saturday: good pacing, but a capped top end and a capped heart rate.
This is her fourth race weekend in a row with travel (Canmore, Rochester, Roanoke, Charm City), with Sunday still to come. Her CTL is about 66 and TSB about -3, so the load numbers look fine, but her body says otherwise. As at Roanoke, TSS doesn't capture the cost of racing and travel for her. The limiter itself, recovering at race pace after a surge, is a fitness gap that the threshold-with-surges and 30/30 sessions target. But today's ceiling was set mostly by fatigue.
Sunday: Charm City C2
- Conditions: about 18°C, 96% humidity, rain likely. Expect a slick, possibly muddy course. Mud reduces the value of raw power and rewards handling and running, which are her strengths.
- Tonight:
- Recovery drink if not already taken.
- A carbohydrate-rich dinner (rice works well) and as much sleep as possible.
- Mud tires, pressures and the pit bike set up.
- Race-morning pre-ride: easy, lines only, no hard efforts.
- Warm-up:
- Pair the power meter with the trainer.
- Finish the warm-up closer to staging, then stay on the rollers until call-up.
- Do 2 x 20 sec hard at about 10 and 5 minutes before the start.
- Aim for a heart rate of 120-130 at the gun.
- Race plan:
- Same disciplined first lap: 225-235 W.
- Don't match surges on the climbs above about 360 W for longer than 30 seconds. She showed today she can't recover from that yet.
- Hold her own threshold and take time back in the muddy and technical sections, where her skills are a real advantage.
- Drinking: to thirst before the start, with electrolytes. High humidity raises sweat loss even at 18°C.
- The optional top-up after Sunday's race: skip it.
Next week
Unless Sunday surprises us, I recommend starting the October 5-11 block on Wednesday instead of Tuesday:
- Monday: travel, and riding is optional.
- Tuesday: an easy 1:00-1:15.
- Wednesday: the threshold with surges session.
- Thursday to Sunday: the rest of the block as planned.
This protects the only race-free training week before Nationals from starting on tired legs. We'll decide on Sunday evening with Sunday's file.